This is my first post in months, and isn’t specific to healthcare. I’m doing it for a couple of reasons. First, this is an important new book by one of the sharpest minds I’ve ever known, and second, it’s about a dangerous situation that’s driving a lot of people nuts. The danger is real, and I think there’s a way to not lose our minds over it.
As I approach age 75, I’m in a position to say this bluntly: we live in disturbingly uncertain times, and “we” includes you. I say this as someone who’s spent his whole career working to understand what’s going on under the surface, whether it was in graphic arts or then in healthcare. Such questions require asking a lot of “Why??” so that any improvement you propose can be built on understand what’s eternal.
What’s most disturbing today is that despite all the changes we’ve seen since World War II, today’s threats (climate change, AI that might run amok, grave threats to democracy) are truly unprecedented, and changing faster than ever. What the HELL are we supposed to do about it?
The anxiety stems from a feeling of helplessness, of being powerless, of being unprepared. But Dr. Mesko’s book offers a way forward: not through quick fixes, but by fundamentally changing how we *approach* reasoned uncertainty:
Learn new ways of using our minds.
Not new methods, or “ten life hacks for an uncertain world”; we need to learn new ways of *approaching* incomprehensible circumstances.
Doing so requires an extraordinary thinker with great mental discipline. Bertalan Mesko MD, PhD (“Berci”) is such a person. He’s one of the world’s very few certified Superforecasters. If you don’t know what a Superforecaster is, stop and google it: they have a rare, measured ability to predict future events with unusual accuracy, over and over. It’s a methodical skill honed through disciplined reasoning and repeated testing. Superforecasters excel at discerning what can realistically be predicted and what remains beyond control, providing needed clarity amid chaos.
Insights from minds like this are what we need in such times.
A Pathway Born of Personal Struggle
Berci starts by sharing his own vulnerability: he writes that in the early days of COVID he found himself in panic and terror, the same kind of paralyzing uncertainty that many of us knew then. His deeply personal story – it sent him into years of therapy – connects him with our predicaments too. This bond between us grounds the book’s central question: will we confront our fears and take action to build a better future, for ourselves and for those who come after us?
The book begins by challenging us to face our assumptions and fears—recognizing that no method can succeed if we’re paralyzed, or stuck in outdated thinking. We need to embrace long-term thinking over “presentism,” because the years between the present and future cannot be known. Without realizing this, you have no motivation to change the scope of your mind’s considerations. (I can attest that he’s right about this.)
When he then transitions in Chapter IV to methods, we have reason to value the approaches to futures thinking that he describes in depth, from vision writing and forecasting to scenario planning and the futures wheel. He’s chosen them (of the dozens he’s studied) because they’ve been of practical value to him. (His status as a proven accurate superforecaster is decisive here.)
They’re not abstract; they’re actionable frameworks you can use to navigate uncertainty in your own life. And he emphasizes that these are skills ordinary people can learn. Whether you’re grappling with personal decisions, organizational strategy, or global challenges, they’re applicable and accessible.
What Sets This Book Apart Is Its Heart
Berci isn’t just teaching you how to think about the future; he’s inviting you to care about it. He speaks of empathy, for the people (including you) who will face these unpredictable circumstances.
Will we leave them to navigate chaos with tools that have failed, as our anxiety proves it has?
Or can we reinvent how to think ahead, relying less on the immediate future and more on long term outcomes, while not denying the risks we face?
An important sign of the author’s integrity is that if he were a commercial futurist-consultant, he’d be saying “Buy my services and I’ll show you the way.” Instead, it’s all laid out here, and the writing is often one-to-one, tell us what we’ll need to do as individuals.
As the book says, a map doesn’t dictate a single path – it helps you chart your own course, better informed. And in this case, it teaches multiple approaches to choosing your route.
Dr. Mesko challenges us to think differently—not just to ease our anxiety, but to prepare ourselves and future generations for a world that increasingly defies prediction. It’s time to get to work.
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